Monday, 21 October 2013

YTLP-WB if fully converted, enlarge YTLP share capital by 16%. YTL corp initially control more than 92% stake in YTLP-WB, but selloff both open market and off market, reduce stake to 66.74% and subsequently offer for sale for 20sen under 1 for 15 for YTL corp shareholder. All in all, i expect Yeoh family to engulf most of it and expect its stake now to as much as 75% in WB, which if fully converted, will increase Yeoh direct stake in YTLP by another 12%.


YTLP have ESOS, granted 10% of total capital to director. its first tranche ESOS exercise at RM 1.49 and second tranche exercise price at RM 1.65. Based on announcement in bursa, Yeoh family entitle 87% of these 2 tranche ESOS, with remaining offer to other independent director of YTLP.
Latest Maybank research report rule out privatization now, instead view current share buyback and cancellation is to increase YTL corp stake in YTLP from 55% to above 70% by 2014,

 The main reason Maybank research report rule out privatization now is that

'conditions not ripe for a share swap. YTLP has outperformed parent YTL Corp by 42% YTD, meaning a share swap at present would be more dilutive for the Yeoh family. A privitisation offer is hence unlikely in the near term. The swap ratio (YTL Corp / YTLP share price) is at its 18-month low, which means that YTL Corp is a better proposition for proponents of the privatization, in our view'

However, under my analysis, Yeoh family control effective stake in YTLP through YTL crop is only 22% (Yeoh family only control 49.11% in YTL crop, which control 44.9% in YTLP). Yeoh family have larger direct stake in YTLP through

1. Cornerstone Crest(Yeoh private control investment company): 6.35%
2. Yeoh and Son bhd: 3.73
3. Yeoh other family member: 0.74%
4. control more than 75% YTLP WB: 12%
5. 87% entitlement of ESOS share: 8.7%

Totaling direct stake is 31.52%.

Therefore, if privatization now, at higher ratio, example 1 YTLP: 1.5 YTL crop,  the dilution in  Yeoh family in YTL corp stake is gain back via more higher direct stake in YTLP
YTLP shareholding.

1. YTL corp 44.9%
2. Cornerstone Crest(Yeoh private control investment company): 6.35%
2. Yeoh and Son bhd: 3.73
3. Yeoh other family member: 0.74%

All in all, YTL corp which in turn control by Yeoh family (49.11%) only control 44.9% in YTLP and less than 7% in YTLP-WB (already opt for sale last year). However, if take into account Yeoh family direct stake, the control stake increase to 55.7%.

Nonetheless, the effective stake actual under Yeoh family is much lesser again as Yeoh family only control 49.11% in YTL crop, which control 44.9% = effective stake in actual is only 22%. If top up again Yeoh direct stake, the effective stake increase to 32.92%.

However, Yeoh family is expect to control more than 75% YTLP WB and as much as 87% entitlement of ESOS share. If all warrant converted and ESOS exercise, Yeoh direct stake will increase to 12% + 8.7% + 32.92% = 53.62%.

Thus, if Yeoh family wanna to increase their effective stake to above 70%, YTLP need to buyback first 10%, cancel all + buyback second batch 10%, cancel all + buyback third batch 10% and cancel all again to boost its stake to 73%.