Monday, 21 October 2013

Latest Maybank research report rule out privatization now, instead view current share buyback and cancellation is to increase YTL corp stake in YTLP from 55% to above 70% by 2014,

 The main reason Maybank research report rule out privatization now is that

'conditions not ripe for a share swap. YTLP has outperformed parent YTL Corp by 42% YTD, meaning a share swap at present would be more dilutive for the Yeoh family. A privitisation offer is hence unlikely in the near term. The swap ratio (YTL Corp / YTLP share price) is at its 18-month low, which means that YTL Corp is a better proposition for proponents of the privatization, in our view'

However, under my analysis, Yeoh family control effective stake in YTLP through YTL crop is only 22% (Yeoh family only control 49.11% in YTL crop, which control 44.9% in YTLP). Yeoh family have larger direct stake in YTLP through

1. Cornerstone Crest(Yeoh private control investment company): 6.35%
2. Yeoh and Son bhd: 3.73
3. Yeoh other family member: 0.74%
4. control more than 75% YTLP WB: 12%
5. 87% entitlement of ESOS share: 8.7%

Totaling direct stake is 31.52%.

Therefore, if privatization now, at higher ratio, example 1 YTLP: 1.5 YTL crop,  the dilution in  Yeoh family in YTL corp stake is gain back via more higher direct stake in YTLP

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